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George Geddes

The Wisdom of Crowds

George Geddes was an engineer and advocate of the plank road, a privately financed wooden-road system intended to connect communities poorly served by canals and railroads. In 1846 he helped establish the first plank-road company in New York State; its success made him a spokesman for a movement that spread widely before the roads’ short lifespan undermined the business model. His episode illustrates how a promising local result can become a compelling but misleading guide for collective decisions.

The Local Roads Problem

Canals and railroads connected major towns and sometimes turned small villages along their routes into commercial hubs, but they did little for most Americans living outside those centers. Local public roads, maintained in separate stretches by villages, were often poorly built and drained. In wet weather they became muddy ruts; in dry weather, dusty ones. Travel was slow and wore down both vehicles and the animals that drew them.

The plank road offered a visible alternative: wooden planks laid over two lines of timber. Introduced in Canada in the early 1840s, it appeared to solve the immediate problem of rough, unreliable routes. The unresolved question was economic rather than practical: could a toll-supported, often privately owned road last long enough to repay the cost of building and maintaining it?

Promotion and the Building Boom

After seeing evidence of plank roads’ success in Canada, Geddes believed the system could work in the United States. He estimated that a typical road would last eight years, a lifespan he considered sufficient to provide a reasonable return on investment. In 1846 he persuaded fellow townsmen in Salina, New York, to charter a company to build the state’s first plank road.

The road proved a roaring success. Plank-road construction spread first through New York, then across the mid-Atlantic states and the Midwest. Geddes became a spokesman for the industry, while promoters in other states advanced similar projects. Within a decade, New York had 352 plank-road companies, and the United States had more than a thousand. The rapid expansion turned one successful undertaking into a widely copied answer to the problem of local transport.

Failure of the Promise

The roads did not last the eight years Geddes had predicted; some enthusiasts had even suggested twelve. Their actual lifespan was closer to four years, too short to make them affordable for the companies responsible for maintaining them. By the late 1850s, it was clear that plank roads were no transportation panacea.

A few routes endured longer. One thirteen-mile stretch along what is now Route 27A in Jamaica, Queens, remained in operation until the 1880s. But by the end of the Civil War, almost all plank roads had been abandoned. The gap between the forecast lifespan and the roads’ actual durability was decisive: their initial success could not sustain the economics of the system.

Significance

The plank-road boom became an example of an information cascade. Early roads succeeded, and those successes gave later builders a ready-made solution to a widespread problem. As more companies adopted the model, its legitimacy grew and the incentive to consider alternatives diminished. The weakness—roads that lasted only about four years—became apparent only after the pattern had spread across the country.

Geddes’s role thus joined practical invention and collective misjudgment. He offered a concrete response to bad local roads and helped launch a movement, but the confidence behind that movement rested on a durability estimate that experience failed to confirm. The case shows how accumulated imitation can make a solution seem increasingly credible even while its underlying limitations remain unresolved.

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